Ukuphela komdlalo
Ukuphela komdlalo -okanye Amaxesha Okuphela, ngokwesihloko sayo santlandlolo sesiNgesi, yincwadi eyakhiwe kwimixholo efana nezentlalo, ezopolitiko nembali. Lo msebenzi, owapapashwa okokuqala ngoJuni 13, 2023, wabhalwa sisazinzulu saseRashiya esintsonkothileyo uPeter Turchin, obephanda ngento yena noogxa bakhe abayibiza ngokuba yi “cliodynamics” iminyaka emininzi.
Oku kubhekiselele kumzekelo wemathematika kunye nohlalutyo lweenkcukacha-manani lwentshukumo yoluntu lwembali. Incwadi ube nophononongo oluhle kakhulu, nangona abanye abafundi bebanga ukuba, mhlawumbi, uziva uphinda-phinda kwaye ungagqibekanga, ngakumbi ekubeni iingcamango zinokusetyenziswa kuphela kwinxalenye yaseNtshona emelwe yiUnited States.
Isishwankathelo sokuphela komdlalo
Xa ibhalansi phakathi kweqela elilawulayo kunye neengcebiso ezininzi kakhulu ekuthandeni i-elites, ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko kuphantse kuphephe.
Ingxelo ekwingxelo yeli candelo sisihlokwana esinamandla se Ukuphela komdlalo. Ukongeza, ngomsebenzi wakhe, uPeter Turchin ushiya imibuzo emininzi kubafundi: "Yintoni evula iingcango kwisiphithiphithi sezopolitiko kunye nokuqhekeka kwezentlalo?", "Zeziphi izixhobo abathi abaphezulu bagcine isikhundla sabo esibalaseleyo?”, “Kutheni oorhulumente maxa wambi bephelelwa ngamandla kulawulo?”
Kwiminyaka emininzi edlulileyo, uPeter UTurchin uye waba ngomnye wabaphandi ababalaseleyo kwimbali yehlabathi. Ke, emva kokuzintywilisela kubungakanani bedatha obuthatha iminyaka engamawaka alishumi okwenziwa ngabantu, ngelixa ephuhlisa imifuziselo emitsha ngokusekelwe kwiziphumo zakhe, wakwazi ukuguqula indlela esifunda ngayo kwixesha elidlulileyo ngokusebenzisa i-cliodynamics.
Ukuphela kophando
Le ncwadi ivezwa njengencopho yayo yonke iminyaka yophononongo lwezenzululwazi nguPeter Turchin, apho athi aphalaze lonke ulwazi lwakhe kwaye enze ibali elitsha nelityhilayo malunga nokusebenza koluntu lwanamhlanje kangangoko. Bathi abo bangayaziyo imbali yabo bagwetywe ukuba bayiphinde, amaxesha amaninzi, ngeyona ndlela imbi.. Ngoko ke, ulwazi lubalulekile.
Izifundo ezinokufundiswa kwixesha elidlulileyo zidla ngokucaca, nangona abantu abaninzi, benegunya nabangenawo, bethanda ukungazinanzi. Ngokutsho kombhali, Kumaxesha amaninzi imbali iye yakhwaza loo nto xa iiklasi ezilawulayo zithembele kakhulu kubantu abaphezulu, kwandisa ukungalingani kwezentlalo, kwezoqoqosho nezopolitiko: izityebi zityebile, amahlwempu ahlupheka ngakumbi.
Ibhombu yobutyebi
UPeter Turchin uthi, njengoko abantu bezama ngamandla ukuphakama kwinqanaba lentlalontle kwaye bajoyine i-elite yamazwe abo, Kuyaqala ukubakho ukunxunguphala ngakumaqela alawulayo, ethi, xa iphuphuma, ibe nemiphumo eyintlekele kwintsimi ekuthethwa ngayo. Umbhali uyibiza le nto “njengebhombu yobutyebi.”
Uphando lwakhe lumkhokelele ekubeni agqibe kwelokuba oku kubhuqa kubangele ukuwa kwamazwe ahlukeneyo ahlukeneyo, aquka: i-imperial China, i-medieval France kunye ne-United States. Iingxoxo zixhaswa yindlela yenzululwazi awayidala kunye noogxa bakhe, eyaziwa ngokuba yi-cliodynamics.
Yintoni i-cliodynamics kunye nendlela imiba yayo yobugcisa isebenza ngayo
I-Cliodynamics luqeqesho lwenzululwazi oluphonononga ukuhlangana kwembali ye-macrosociology, i-cliometrics kunye nomzekelo wezibalo weenkqubo zentlalo. Ngaloo ndlela, UTurchin wavelisa ithiyori yantlandlolo echaza indlela izinto ezinkulu zembali eziguquka ngayo ngokusebenzisa indlela yokukhetha amanqanaba amaninzi.
Uphando lwakhe kwimijikelo yehlabathi ibe negalelo ekuqondeni ngakumbi ukuwa kwemibutho entsonkothileyo, kunye nokuphinda atolike ingcamango ka-Ibn Khaldun ye-Asabiyya, ingcamango "yomanyano loluntu" egxininisa ubunye.
I-hypothesis yokuba uxinzelelo lwabemi lubangela ukwanda kweemfazwe?
I-Turchin, ngokubambisana noKorotayev, ibonise ukuba iziphumo ezibi aziyichasi i-demographic war hypothesis. Abemi kunye imfazwe Zizinto eziguquguqukayo. Ukuba intsebenziswano yabo ibangela i-oscillations eqhubekayo, ngoko ngokubanzi Akulindelekanga ukufumana ulungelelwaniso oluqinileyo phakathi kweenguqu ezimbini ezilinganiswe ngexesha elinye. —oko kukuthi, alilibazisi—.
UTurchin noKorotayev baye baphonononga ngokwezibalo ukuba iipatheni eziguquguqukayo zentsebenziswano phakathi kwabemi kunye nemfazwe zinokuba yintoni, zijolise kwimfazwe yangaphakathi, kurhulumente kunye noluntu olungenammiselo. Okulandelayo, ivavanye uqikelelo lwemodeli kuphononongo oluninzi olunobungqina: INgilani yamandulo yanamhlanje, iHan kunye neTang China, kunye noBukhosi baseRoma.
Ithiyori yemfazwe yabemi
Turchin kunye noKorotayev baye bafumanisa ukuba kukho utyekelo lwenani labemi kunye nobunzulu bemfazwe yangaphakathi I-oscillate ngexesha elifanayo, kodwa ngotshintsho kwinqanaba-kunye neencopho zemfazwe emva kweencopho zabemi. Ngaphezu koko, baye babonisa ukuba amazinga okutshintsha kwezi ziguquko zimbini ziziphatha ngokuchanekileyo njengoko ithiyori iqikelela.
Oku kuthetha ukuba isantya sokutshintsha kwabemi sichatshazelwa kakubi bubunzulu bemfazwe, ngelixa izinga lemfazwe lokutshintsha lichatshazelwa kakuhle kukuxinana kwabantu. Kwi-2010, i-Turchin yapapasha uphando olusebenzisa izikhombisi ze-40 zentlalo ezidityanisiweyo ukuqikelela ukuba kuya kubakho ukuphazamiseka kwentlalo emhlabeni jikelele kwi-2020s.
Iphulo likaDonald Trump lika-2016 likamongameli
UPeter Turchin ubalule impumelelo yeli phulo njengobungqina bokuba “imikhwa engalunganga ibonakala ikhula ngokukhawuleza” kwanokuba kuye kwakho “ukuwohloka ngendlela engazange ibonwe ngaphambili kwemilinganiselo yentlalo elawula iingxoxo zempucuko.”
Kwi 2020, UTurchin noJack Goldstone baxela kwangaphambili ukuba uqhushululu lwezopolitiko nolwasekuhlaleni eUnited States luza kuqhubeka nokuba leliphi na iqela elilawulayo. Oku, ubuncinci de inkokeli ithathe inyathelo lokunciphisa ukungalingani kunye nokuphucula izikhombisi zentlalo ezilandelwa kuphando lwakhe.
Sobre el autor
UPeter Valentinovich Turchin wazalwa ngoMeyi 22, 1957, e-Obninsk, eSoviet Union. Ngowe-1964, yena nentsapho yakhe bafudukela eMoscow.. Ngo-1975, wabhalisa kwiFakhalthi yeBhayoloji yeDyunivesithi kaRhulumente yesixeko sakhe. waza wafunda apho de kwangowe-1977, xa uyise, umchasi waseSoviet uValentin Turchin, wagxothwayo kwiManyano.
Ngowe-1980, uTurchin wafumana isidanga sebhayoloji kwiYunivesithi yaseNew York yaye, ngowe-1985, wafumana isidanga sebhayoloji. PhD kwiZoology kwiYunivesithi yaseDuke. Okwangoku, ungunjingalwazi ophumayo kwiDyunivesithi yaseConnecticut kumasebe e-Ecology kunye ne-Evolutionary Biology, i-Anthropology, kunye neMathematika. Ukwayinkokeli yeprojekthi kwi-Complexity Science Hub eVienna.
Ezinye iincwadi zikaPeter Turchin
- Uhlalutyo lobungakanani beNtshukumo: Ukulinganisa kunye nokwenza iModeli yoKwabiwa kwakhona kwabantu kwiZilwanyana kunye neZityalo. (1998);
- I-Complex Population Dynamics: I-Theoretical / Empirical Synthesis - i-Complex Population Dynamics: I-Theoretical / Empirical Synthesis (2003);
- Amandla oMbali: Kutheni amazwe enyuka kwaye ewa (2003);
- Imfazwe kunye noXolo kunye neMfazwe: Ukunyuka kunye nokuwa kwee-Empires (2007);
- Imijikelezo yehlabathi (2009);
- I-Ultrasociety: Indlela eyi-10,000 yeminyaka yeMfazwe eyenza abantu babe ngabaSebenzisi abakhulu kunabo bonke emhlabeni (2016);
- Ubudala beDiscord: Uhlalutyo lweNdawo yoLwakhiwo lweMbali yaseMelika (2016);
- Ukujonga Ixesha Elidlulileyo; IiNkcukacha eziBalulekileyo ze-3,495 ezichaza iMbali yeHlabathi - Ukufumana ixesha elidlulileyo; Amanani Abalulekileyo angama-3.495 XNUMX Achaza Imbali Yehlabathi (2020).